The HVAC, Plumbing and Electrician Shortage: What the BLS Data Says (2025–2035)

By Tim Oyler, Founder of Thirty Madison Ventures

Short answer: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects about 40,600 openings a year for HVAC/R techs, 42,000 for plumbers, pipefitters and steamfitters, and 72,700 for electricians, on average, from 2025 to 2035. That's about 155,300 openings a year across the three trades combined. All three are projected to grow faster than the 3% average for all occupations. BLS says most of the openings will come from replacing workers who retire or leave the trade, not from new growth.

Every number on this page comes from public federal data and links to its source. Where we did math on BLS figures, we say so.

The numbers at a glance

*Plumbing, heating and air-conditioning contractors (HVAC and plumbing). Electrical contractors and other wiring installation contractors (electricians).

Sources: BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook. HVAC/R mechanics and installers · Plumbers, pipefitters and steamfitters · Electricians. Projections are 2025–35. Wages are from the BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics survey, May 2025. The average projected growth for all occupations is 3%. Pages accessed October 16, 2026.

Most openings come from replacement, not growth

This is the most important point for a shop owner. BLS's annual openings figure combines new jobs from growth with jobs left by workers who retire or move to other occupations. BLS says that for all three trades, "many of those openings are expected to result from the need to replace workers who transfer to different occupations or exit the labor force, such as to retire."

You can see it in the numbers. Here's our arithmetic on the BLS figures above:

• HVAC: 48,200 net new jobs over 10 years is about 4,820 a year. That's roughly 12% of the 40,600 annual openings. The other ~88% replace people who leave.
• Plumbers, pipefitters and steamfitters: about 3,450 new jobs a year, or roughly 8% of the 42,000 openings.
• Electricians: about 7,590 new jobs a year, or roughly 10% of the 72,700 openings.

In other words, about nine out of ten projected openings in these trades come from people leaving the trade, not from the trade getting bigger. If you're a shop owner, a lot of the "shortage" is techs walking out of shops like yours.

The training pipeline is long

You can't hire your way out of a shortage quickly when the supply takes years to build:

• Plumbers: BLS says most learn through a 4- or 5-year apprenticeship with about 2,000 hours of paid on-the-job training a year. Most states and some localities require a license, which often takes 2 to 5 years of experience plus an exam.
• Electricians: Also typically a 4- or 5-year apprenticeship with about 2,000 paid hours a year. Most states require electricians to pass a test and be licensed.
• HVAC techs: Typically a postsecondary program of 6 months to 2 years, then a long period of on-the-job training. The EPA requires nearly all HVAC techs to be certified for refrigerant handling (EPA Section 608).

What BLS says is driving demand

• HVAC: commercial construction, including data centers, residential construction, and more sophisticated climate-control systems. Retrofits and replacements of existing systems are also a large share of the work.
• Plumbers: new construction plus maintenance and repair of existing buildings. Building codes requiring fire-suppression systems drive demand for sprinklerfitters.
• Electricians: power systems in nearly every building, connecting solar and wind to the grid, and rising electricity demand from AI and data centers, which require grid upgrades and new infrastructure.

The data center trend shows up on both the HVAC and electrician pages. For residential service shops, that means more competition for the same licensed workers.

Who you're competing with on pay

BLS also reports median pay by industry. In each trade, contractors are not the highest-paying employer:

Source: the same BLS OOH pages, Pay tab. These are national medians. Pay varies a lot by state and metro.

This doesn't mean home service shops can't compete. It means the techs you want are weighing offers from employers who aren't other HVAC or plumbing shops. Schedule, take-home truck, training and a path to lead or sales all count, and you have to sell them.

How to get the numbers for your market

National figures hide big local differences. For your state or metro:

• Pay and employment by state and metro: BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS). Search the SOC codes in the table above.
• State-level 10-year projections: Projections Central, which publishes projections from each state's labor market office.
• Licensing requirements by state: CareerOneStop's license finder, the source BLS points to.

What owners can do about it

A shortage driven by replacement rewards shops that keep good techs and recruit employed ones, not shops that post and wait:

1. Pre-fill your bench. Keep a short list of techs you'd hire tomorrow, and stay in touch before you need them.
2. Use the peer-reference loophole. Ask every strong tech and candidate for two or three peer references at or above their level.
3. Treat recruiting as a sales process. Find the tech's pain and sell your shop as the fix.
4. Hire better, fire faster. Use a clear 90-day scorecard, and make the call early.
5. Count the invisible P&L. Calls turned away × booking rate × average ticket, using your own numbers.

Trade-specific playbooks: hire HVAC techs · hire plumbers · hire electricians · selling techs vs. service techs.

Watch: when techs are scarce, every tech has to produce

When there aren't enough techs to go around, the ones you have need to turn more calls into work, and the techs you recruit need to be able to do the same. On The War Room, Andy Hobaica, who told Tim he closed over $12M last year, walks through what he says at the kitchen table, at the door and on the phone, and how he role-plays with his team twice a week so the skills stick.

Watch on YouTube: Meet the HVAC Closer Who Sells $12M a Year

How Thirty Madison Ventures fits in

Thirty Madison Ventures recruits truck-ready HVAC, plumbing and electrical techs, both service techs and selling techs, for home service companies. We go after employed, high-performing techs instead of waiting on job boards. From our homepage, word for word: "We deliver your first qualified candidates within 14 days of our kickoff call."

Tell us the seat and the city. Book a call →

Methodology and limits

• Source: BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook profiles for SOC 49-9021, 47-2152 and 47-2111 (pages last modified August 27, 2026, accessed October 16, 2026). Projections cover 2025–2035. Wages are May 2025 OEWS data.
• "Openings" are not "unfilled jobs." BLS projects average annual openings from growth and replacement. It doesn't publish a count of unfilled HVAC, plumbing or electrical jobs, and this page doesn't claim one.
• Categories are broader than residential service. The plumber figures include pipefitters and steamfitters. The electrician and HVAC figures include commercial, industrial and construction work.
• Our math is labeled. The combined total (155,300) and the growth-vs-replacement shares are simple arithmetic on BLS figures.
• We'll update this page when BLS publishes new projections.

Cite this page: Thirty Madison Ventures, "The HVAC, Plumbing and Electrician Shortage: What the BLS Data Says (2025–2035)," jointhirtymadison.com/technician-shortage, data accessed October 16, 2026.